“Even a dead cat will bounce if it’s dropped from a high enough altitude,” says an old Wall Street adage. Major economic signals reveal the office building industry is experiencing “a dead cat bounce.”
Sale prices for office buildings enjoyed a moderate bounce to the upside, following the financial crisis of 2007 - 2008. However, the recession and its legacy have vaporized an estimated 275 to 550 million square feet of demand for U.S. office space. While the carnage in the labor market has been slow to influence the office market, the aftershock is beginning to be felt across the country as tenants shed surplus office space.
This assessment comes from B. Alan Whitson, RPA, President of Corporate Realty, Design & Management Institute, and Chair of the Model Green Lease Task Force in a multipart series Office Buildings: The Dead Cat Bounce. In Part One of this series, Whitson zeroes in on changes in the labor market, how it affects demand for office space, and five trends to watch.
“Most pundits have been tracking ‘new unemployment claims’ as their indicator of choice,” says Whitson. “While this worked in past recessions, this time the key is the number of job openings. Before the recession, we averaged 4 million job openings a month. Since the recession ended, job openings have averaged 2.7 million a month. In contrast, layoffs are running 2.1 million a month slightly below the prerecession average of 2.3 million a month. With the economy short 1.3 million job openings every month, a major shake out in the office building market is occurring.”
Five trends to watch from Office Buildings: The Dead Cat Bounce - Part One:
1. Tenants are taking less space, signing short-term leases, and spending less on tenant improvements
2. At 17% vacancy nationwide, tenants are becoming more selective about the space and buildings they lease. Yet, landlords have the upper hand in some submarkets. Tenant that are willing to be flexible and creative can make can make great deals on great space
3. Well-informed building owners will get more creative about the product the offer – work environment vs. square feet
4. Look for an “Uber” class of office buildings to emerge, a combination of location, style, technology, and sustainability. Many 60s, 70s, and 80s era buildings have great locations, good architectural bones and maybe more competitive than some of the newer buildings given a smart upgrade to the skin, mechanical and electrical systems
5. While technology allows us to work anywhere, where we work is becoming more important
As the series moves forward, Whitson will address how these and other changes affect the design, construction, and operation of office buildings. The changing relationship between building owners and their tenants, the leases negotiated, and the types of office buildings tenants are seeking. The goal of the series is to identify the pitfalls to avoid and where to profit from the changes in the office- building marketplace. BD+C
Related Stories
| Dec 7, 2010
Are green building RFPs more important than contracts?
The Request for Proposal (RFP) process is key to managing a successful LEED project, according to Green Building Law Update. While most people think a contract is the key element to a successful construction project, successfully managing a LEED project requires a clear RFP that addresses many of the problems that can lead to litigation.
| Dec 7, 2010
Blue is the future of green design
Blue design creates places that are not just neutral, but actually add back to the world and is the future of sustainable design and architecture, according to an interview with Paul Eagle, managing director of Perkins+Will, New York; and Janice Barnes, principal at the firm and global discipline leader for planning and strategies.
| Dec 7, 2010
Green building thrives in shaky economy
Green building’s momentum hasn’t been stopped by the economic recession and will keep speeding through the recovery, while at the same time building owners are looking to go green more for economic reasons than environmental ones. Green building has grown 50% in the past two years; total construction starts have shrunk 26% over the same time period, according to “Green Outlook 2011” report. The green-building sector is expected to nearly triple by 2015, representing as much as $145 billion in new construction activity.
| Dec 7, 2010
USGBC: Wood-certification benchmarks fail to pass
The proposed Forest Certification Benchmark to determine when wood-certification groups would have their certification qualify for points in the LEED rating systemdid not pass the USGBC member ballot. As a result, the Certified Wood credit in LEED will remain as it is currently written. To date, only wood certified by the Forest Stewardship Council qualifies for a point in the LEED, while other organizations, such as the Sustainable Forestry Initiative, the Canadian Standards Association, and the American Tree Farm System, are excluded.
| Dec 7, 2010
Prospects for multifamily sector improve greatly
The multifamily sector is showing signs of a real recovery, with nearly 22,000 new apartment units delivered to the market. Net absorption in the third quarter surged by 94,000 units, dropping the national vacancy rate from 7.8% to 7.1%, one of the largest quarterly drops on record, and rents increased for the second quarter in a row.
| Dec 7, 2010
Hot rumor: Norman Foster designing Apple’s new campus
Lord Norman Foster, reportedly has been selected to design Apple’s new campus in Cupertino, Calif. If the news is true, Foster is a good match for Apple say experts. Foster built his celebrity by marrying big gestures to technological wizardry. And, unlike some starchitects, he has glommed onto the environmental revolution—something Apple has made a point of embracing, too.
| Dec 7, 2010
Product of the Week: Petersen Aluminum’s column covers used in IBM’S new offices
IBM’s new offices at Dulles Station West in Herndon, Va., utilized Petersen’s PAC-1000 F Flush Series column covers. The columns are within the office’s Mobility Area, which is designed for a mobile workforce looking for quick in-and-out work space. The majority of workspaces in the office are unassigned and intended to be used on a temporary basis.
| Dec 6, 2010
Honeywell survey
Rising energy costs and a tough economic climate have forced the nation’s school districts to defer facility maintenance and delay construction projects, but they have also encouraged districts to pursue green initiatives, according to Honeywell’s second annual “School Energy and Environment Survey.”
| Dec 2, 2010
Alliance for Sustainable Built Environments adds Kohler's Robert Zimmerman to Board of Directors
Robert Zimmerman, Manager – Engineering, Water Conservation & Sustainability at Kohler Co., in Kohler, Wisconsin, has joined the Board of Directors of the Alliance for Sustainable Built Environments. In his position at Kohler Co., Rob is involved with all aspects of water conservation and sustainability related to plumbing fixtures and faucets.
