November 2016 will most certainly go down in the books as one of the most memorable months in recent decades. If the Chicago Cubs winning the World Series in dramatic Game 7 fashion wasn’t enough to shock you, then the events that unfolded during the late evening on Nov. 8 likely were.
Regardless of which side of the aisle you stand on, election night was a jaw-dropping moment. Donald Trump’s own campaign advisors, along with some of his supporters and pundits, admitted to being astonished as the story unfolded on election night.
On the morning of Election Day, the New York Times set the odds of Trump winning at a scant 15%. “Mrs. Clinton’s chance of losing is about the same as the probability that an N.F.L. kicker misses a 37-yard field goal,” they wrote. Well, Hillary missed a chip shot, and the NYT editors—like many in the media—were left with egg on their face for grossly underestimating Trump’s chances. It was a Dewey Defeats Truman moment.
What does a Trump-led America (coupled with a GOP-controlled Congress) mean for the AEC industry? As with any election, it’s a mixed bag of the good, the bad, and the unknown.
The good: Trump proposes spending up- wards of $1 trillion to rebuild the nation’s roads, bridges, tunnels, water systems, and airports as part of a massive infrastructure bill. While not primarily buildings work, this level of investment would most certainly create real estate development opportunities and needs—whether directly or indirectly—for the AEC community. Infrastructure investment is one of the few pressing issues that garners almost universal support among political leaders in Washington. The trillion-dollar question is, How do we pay for it? Trump’s answer: public-private partnerships and other creative financing methods.
The bad: In his 100-day action plan, Trump outlines several measures that could hit AEC firms in the pocketbook in the near term. On the list is Obamacare, which Trump hopes to repeal and replace with traditional HSA and health insurance initiatives. This move could cause healthcare operators to take a “let’s wait and see” approach to real estate investments, much like they did during the implementation of Obamacare. Having healthcare owners hit the pause button for the second time in six years could severely impact AEC rms. At $87 billion in annual construction spending, healthcare is the largest sector in the nonresidential market.
The unknown: Given the GOP’s contentious relationship with Trump during the election cycle, we could be in for four more years of gridlock in Washington. It’s too early to predict how his ideas will be received by the house and senate.
A recent survey of 306 BD+C readers paints a picture of cautious optimism for AEC firms. Half of the respondents (50.3%) predict that 2017 will be an “excellent” or “very good” business year for their firm. More than half (55.3%) expect their firm’s revenue to increase next year; just 11.5% are forecasting a drop.
On the flip side, when asked to identify their biggest concerns heading into 2017, nearly a third (31.7%) cited “business impacts from the Presidential election” as a top-three burden— only behind “general economic conditions” and “competition from other firms.”
As we head toward Inauguration Day, all we can do is hope the President-elect delivers on much more good than bad.
Related Stories
| Aug 11, 2010
Jacobs, HDR top BD+C's ranking of the nation's 100 largest institutional building design firms
A ranking of the Top 100 Institutional Design Firms based on Building Design+Construction's 2009 Giants 300 survey. For more Giants 300 rankings, visit http://www.BDCnetwork.com/Giants
| Aug 11, 2010
Whiting-Turner, EMJ Corp. top BD+C's ranking of the nation's 40 largest retail contractors
A ranking of the Top 40 Retail Contractors based on Building Design+Construction's 2009 Giants 300 survey. For more Giants 300 rankings, visit http://www.BDCnetwork.com/Giants
| Aug 11, 2010
SAFTI FIRST hires Tim Nass as National Sales Manager
SAFTI FIRST, a leading USA manufacturer of fire rated glazing and framing systems, is pleased to announce the addition of Tim Nass as National Sales Manager. In his new role, Tim will be working closely with architects and contract glaziers in selecting the appropriate and most economical fire rated glazing solution for their project. He will also be coordinating SAFTI FIRST’s extensive network of architectural representatives throughout the United States.
| Aug 11, 2010
NCARB welcomes new board of directors
The National Council of Architectural Registration Boards (NCARB) introduces its Board of Directors for FY10, who were installed during the culmination of the Council’s 90th Annual Meeting and Conference in Chicago.
| Aug 11, 2010
Nonprofit healthcare providers turn to real estate for liquidity and to preserve capital, says Jones Lang LaSalle report
Long considered to be stable investments immune to recession, hospitals and other healthcare facilities are now feeling the effects of a cash-strapped economy as decreased charitable contributions are forcing nonprofit hospitals to pare back and seek new financing sources, according to Jones Lang LaSalle’s 2009 Healthcare Real Estate Financing Outlook.
| Aug 11, 2010
New CertainTeed Gypsum drywall compound reduces airborne dust by more than 70%
CertainTeed Gypsum launches two new revolutionary drywall compounds that significantly reduce the amount of dust traditionally associated with finishing gypsum walls and ceilings. The products—Dust Away Reduced Airborne Dust Drywall Compound and Renovation Mud—join CertainTeed’s Easi-Fil and ProRoc brands of finishing products currently available throughout Canada.
| Aug 11, 2010
Suffolk Construction Company acquires William A. Berry & Son
Suffolk Construction Company, New England’s largest construction company announced today that they have acquired William A. Berry & Son (Berry), the second largest construction company in the region. The two companies, both with deep New England roots and successful track-records, combined will have more than 1,200 employees and projected revenues of $2 billion.
| Aug 11, 2010
Polshek Partnership unveils design for University of North Texas business building
New York-based architect Polshek Partnership today unveiled its design scheme for the $70 million Business Leadership Building at the University of North Texas in Denton. Designed to provide UNT’s 5,400-plus business majors the highest level of academic instruction and professional training, the 180,000-sf facility will include an open atrium, an internet café, and numerous study and tutoring rooms—all designed to help develop a spirit of collaboration and team-oriented focus.
