Researchers from the NYU Stern School of Business and the Columbia University Graduate School of Business say the work-from-home movement will result in $500 billion of lost value in office real estate.
In a recent study, the researchers found a 32% decline in office values in 2020 and predict a 28% fall “in the longer-run.” The work-from-home shift since the pandemic has caused significant changes in lease revenues, office occupancy, lease renewal rates, lease durations, and market rents, researchers say.
Robust tools for working from home had been in place for years, but the necessities of the pandemic pushed widespread adoption of remote work. According to the researchers, office occupancy dropped from 95% in February 2020 to 10% within a month. By May 2022, it had only bounced back to 50%.
If the trend remains strong, a lot of office space might not be necessary. That would mean massive financial implications for land values and valuations in lending, nearby retail space, and tax resources for local governments.
The declines don’t fall evenly. There is “some evidence of a ‘flight to quality,’ particularly in rents,” researchers say. But rents may have yet to bottom out, as vacancy rates are at 30-year highs in many cities, and on average two-thirds of leases haven’t come up for renewals yet.
Related Stories
Government Buildings | Aug 23, 2023
White House wants to ‘aggressively’ get federal workers back to the office
The Biden administration wants to “aggressively” get federal workers back in the office by September or October. “We are returning to in-person work because it is critical to the well-being of our teams and will enable us to deliver better results for the American people,” according to an email by White House Chief of Staff Jeff Zients. The administration will not eliminate remote work entirely, though.
Giants 400 | Aug 22, 2023
Top 115 Architecture Engineering Firms for 2023
Stantec, HDR, Page, HOK, and Arcadis North America top the rankings of the nation's largest architecture engineering (AE) firms for nonresidential building and multifamily housing work, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2023 Giants 400 Report.
Giants 400 | Aug 22, 2023
2023 Giants 400 Report: Ranking the nation's largest architecture, engineering, and construction firms
A record 552 AEC firms submitted data for BD+C's 2023 Giants 400 Report. The final report includes 137 rankings across 25 building sectors and specialty categories.
Giants 400 | Aug 22, 2023
Top 175 Architecture Firms for 2023
Gensler, HKS, Perkins&Will, Corgan, and Perkins Eastman top the rankings of the nation's largest architecture firms for nonresidential building and multifamily housing work, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2023 Giants 400 Report.
Affordable Housing | Aug 21, 2023
Essential housing: What’s in a name?
For many in our communities, rising rents and increased demand for housing means they are only one paycheck away from being unhoused. It’s time to stop thinking of affordable housing as a handout and start calling it what it is: Essential Housing.
Adaptive Reuse | Aug 16, 2023
One of New York’s largest office-to-residential conversions kicks off soon
One of New York City’s largest office-to-residential conversions will soon be underway in lower Manhattan. 55 Broad Street, which served as the headquarters for Goldman Sachs from 1967 until 1983, will be reborn as a residence with 571 market rate apartments. The 30-story building will offer a wealth of amenities including a private club, wellness and fitness activities.
Sustainability | Aug 15, 2023
Carbon management platform offers free carbon emissions assessment for NYC buildings
nZero, developer of a real-time carbon accounting and management platform, is offering free carbon emissions assessments for buildings in New York City. The offer is intended to help building owners prepare for the city’s upcoming Local Law 97 reporting requirements and compliance. This law will soon assess monetary fines for buildings with emissions that are in non-compliance.
Office Buildings | Aug 15, 2023
Amount of office space in U.S. is declining for the first time, says JLL
In what is likely a historic first, the amount of office space in the U.S. is forecast to decline in 2023, according to Jones Lang LaSalle. This would be the first net decline according to data going back to 2000, JLL says, and it’s likely the first decline ever.
Office Buildings | Aug 14, 2023
The programmatic evolution of the lobby
Ian Reves, Managing Director for IA's Atlanta studio, shares how design can shape a lobby into an office mainstay.
Office Buildings | Aug 10, 2023
Bjarke Ingels Group and Skanska to deliver 1550 on the Green, one of the most sustainable buildings in Texas
In downtown Houston, Skanska USA’s 1550 on the Green, a 28-story, 375,000-sf office tower, aims to be one of Texas’ most sustainable buildings. The $225 million project has deployed various sustainable building materials, such as less carbon-intensive cement, to target 60% reduced embodied carbon.
