Researchers from the NYU Stern School of Business and the Columbia University Graduate School of Business say the work-from-home movement will result in $500 billion of lost value in office real estate.
In a recent study, the researchers found a 32% decline in office values in 2020 and predict a 28% fall “in the longer-run.” The work-from-home shift since the pandemic has caused significant changes in lease revenues, office occupancy, lease renewal rates, lease durations, and market rents, researchers say.
Robust tools for working from home had been in place for years, but the necessities of the pandemic pushed widespread adoption of remote work. According to the researchers, office occupancy dropped from 95% in February 2020 to 10% within a month. By May 2022, it had only bounced back to 50%.
If the trend remains strong, a lot of office space might not be necessary. That would mean massive financial implications for land values and valuations in lending, nearby retail space, and tax resources for local governments.
The declines don’t fall evenly. There is “some evidence of a ‘flight to quality,’ particularly in rents,” researchers say. But rents may have yet to bottom out, as vacancy rates are at 30-year highs in many cities, and on average two-thirds of leases haven’t come up for renewals yet.
Related Stories
Transit Facilities | Dec 4, 2023
6 guideposts for cities to create equitable transit-oriented developments
Austin, Texas, has developed an ETOD Policy Toolkit Study to make transit-oriented developments more equitable for current and future residents and businesses.
Office Buildings | Dec 1, 2023
Amazon office building doubles as emergency housing for Seattle families
The unusual location for services of this kind serves over 300 people per day. Mary's Place spreads across eight of the office's floors—all designed by Graphite—testing the status quo for its experimental approach to homelessness support.
Engineers | Nov 27, 2023
Kimley-Horn eliminates the guesswork of electric vehicle charger site selection
Private businesses and governments can now choose their new electric vehicle (EV) charger locations with data-driven precision. Kimley-Horn, the national engineering, planning, and design consulting firm, today launched TREDLite EV, a cloud-based tool that helps organizations develop and optimize their EV charger deployment strategies based on the organization’s unique priorities.
Market Data | Nov 27, 2023
Number of employees returning to the office varies significantly by city
While the return-to-the-office trend is felt across the country, the percentage of employees moving back to their offices varies significantly according to geography, according to Eptura’s Q3 Workplace Index.
Office Buildings | Nov 10, 2023
3 important early considerations for office-to-residential conversions
Scott Campagna, PE, Senior Director of Housing, IMEG Corp, shares insights from experts on office-to-residential conversion issues that may be mitigated when dealt with early.
Laboratories | Nov 8, 2023
Boston’s FORUM building to support cutting-edge life sciences research and development
Global real estate companies Lendlease and Ivanhoé Cambridge recently announced the topping-out of FORUM, a nine-story, 350,000-sf life science building in Boston. Located in Boston Landing, a 15-acre mixed-use community, the $545 million project will achieve operational net zero carbon upon completion in 2024.
Giants 400 | Nov 6, 2023
Top 100 Government Building Construction Firms for 2023
Hensel Phelps, Turner Construction, Clark Group, Fluor, and BL Harbert top BD+C's rankings of the nation's largest government building sector general contractors and construction management (CM) firms for 2023, as reported in the 2023 Giants 400 Report. Note: This ranking includes revenue from all government building sectors, including federal, state, local, military, and Veterans Affairs (VA) buildings.
Giants 400 | Nov 6, 2023
Top 90 Government Building Engineering Firms for 2023
Fluor, Jacobs, AECOM, WSP, and Burns & McDonnell head BD+C's rankings of the nation's largest government building sector engineering and engineering architecture (EA) firms for 2023, as reported in the 2023 Giants 400 Report. Note: This ranking includes revenue from all government building sectors, including federal, state, local, military, and Veterans Affairs (VA) buildings.
Giants 400 | Nov 6, 2023
Top 170 Government Building Architecture Firms for 2023
Page Southerland Page, Gensler, Stantec, HOK, and Skidmore, Owings & Merrill top BD+C's ranking of the nation's largest government building sector architecture and architecture engineering (AE) firms for 2023, as reported in the 2023 Giants 400 Report. Note: This ranking includes revenue from all government building sectors, including federal, state, local, military, and Veterans Affairs (VA) buildings.
Office Buildings | Nov 2, 2023
Amazon’s second headquarters completes its first buildings: a pair of 22-story towers
Amazon has completed construction of the first two buildings of its second headquarters, located in Arlington, Va. The all-electric structures, featuring low carbon concrete and mass timber, help further the company’s commitment to achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2040 and 100% renewable energy consumption by 2030. Designed by ZGF Architects, the two 22-story buildings are on track to become the largest LEED v4 Platinum buildings in the U.S.
