Researchers from the NYU Stern School of Business and the Columbia University Graduate School of Business say the work-from-home movement will result in $500 billion of lost value in office real estate.
In a recent study, the researchers found a 32% decline in office values in 2020 and predict a 28% fall “in the longer-run.” The work-from-home shift since the pandemic has caused significant changes in lease revenues, office occupancy, lease renewal rates, lease durations, and market rents, researchers say.
Robust tools for working from home had been in place for years, but the necessities of the pandemic pushed widespread adoption of remote work. According to the researchers, office occupancy dropped from 95% in February 2020 to 10% within a month. By May 2022, it had only bounced back to 50%.
If the trend remains strong, a lot of office space might not be necessary. That would mean massive financial implications for land values and valuations in lending, nearby retail space, and tax resources for local governments.
The declines don’t fall evenly. There is “some evidence of a ‘flight to quality,’ particularly in rents,” researchers say. But rents may have yet to bottom out, as vacancy rates are at 30-year highs in many cities, and on average two-thirds of leases haven’t come up for renewals yet.
Related Stories
Office Buildings | Jul 12, 2022
Miami office tower nears completion, topping off at 55 stories
In Miami, construction of OKO Group and Cain International’s 830 Brickell office tower is nearing completion.
AEC Business Innovation | Jun 15, 2022
Cognitive health takes center stage in the AEC industry
Two prominent architecture firms are looking to build on the industry’s knowledge base on design’s impact on building occupant health and performance with new research efforts.
Sustainable Design and Construction | Jun 14, 2022
For its new office, a farm in California considers four sustainable design options, driven by data
The architect used cove.tool’s performance measurement software to make its case.
Office Buildings | Jun 13, 2022
San Antonio’s electric utility HQ to transform into a modern office building
In San Antonio, Tex., the former headquarters of CPS Energy, the city’s electric utility, is slated to transform into 100,000 square feet of office and retail space on San Antonio’s famed River Walk.
Office Buildings | Jun 8, 2022
Former L.A. Times newsroom/printing plant remade into office campus
Phase 1 of The Press, an adaptive reuse project that is converting an old Los Angeles Times facility into a modern office campus, was recently completed in Costa Mesa, Calif.
Office Buildings | May 19, 2022
JLL releases its 2022 Office Fit Out Guide
JLL’s 2022 Office Fit Out Guide report provides benchmark costs to build out a range of office types across major markets in the United States and Canada.
Headquarters | May 10, 2022
JPMorgan Chase’s new all-electric headquarters to have net-zero operational emissions
JPMorgan Chase’s recently unveiled plans for its new global headquarters building in New York City that is rife with impressive sustainability credentials.
Building Team | May 6, 2022
Atlanta’s largest adaptive reuse project features cross laminated timber
Global real estate investment and management firm Jamestown recently started construction on more than 700,000 sf of new live, work, and shop space at Ponce City Market.
Office Buildings | Apr 28, 2022
A 48-story office tower to rise over boomtown Austin
In downtown Austin, Texas, a planned 48-story office tower, The Republic, recently secured its first major tenant—allowing for the groundbreaking by midyear.
Mixed-Use | Apr 22, 2022
San Francisco replaces a waterfront parking lot with a new neighborhood
A parking lot on San Francisco’s waterfront is transforming into Mission Rock—a new neighborhood featuring rental units, offices, parks, open spaces, retail, and parking.
