Researchers from the NYU Stern School of Business and the Columbia University Graduate School of Business say the work-from-home movement will result in $500 billion of lost value in office real estate.
In a recent study, the researchers found a 32% decline in office values in 2020 and predict a 28% fall “in the longer-run.” The work-from-home shift since the pandemic has caused significant changes in lease revenues, office occupancy, lease renewal rates, lease durations, and market rents, researchers say.
Robust tools for working from home had been in place for years, but the necessities of the pandemic pushed widespread adoption of remote work. According to the researchers, office occupancy dropped from 95% in February 2020 to 10% within a month. By May 2022, it had only bounced back to 50%.
If the trend remains strong, a lot of office space might not be necessary. That would mean massive financial implications for land values and valuations in lending, nearby retail space, and tax resources for local governments.
The declines don’t fall evenly. There is “some evidence of a ‘flight to quality,’ particularly in rents,” researchers say. But rents may have yet to bottom out, as vacancy rates are at 30-year highs in many cities, and on average two-thirds of leases haven’t come up for renewals yet.
Related Stories
Coronavirus | Jan 20, 2022
Advances and challenges in improving indoor air quality in commercial buildings
Michael Dreidger, CEO of IAQ tech startup Airsset speaks with BD+C's John Caulfield about how building owners and property managers can improve their buildings' air quality.
3D Printing | Jan 12, 2022
Using 3D-printed molds to create unitized window forms
COOKFOX designer Pam Campbell and Gate Precast's Mo Wright discuss the use of 3D-printed molds from Oak Ridge National Lab to create unitized window panels for One South First, a residential-commercial high-rise in Brooklyn, N.Y.
Headquarters | Oct 28, 2021
Florida’s Seagate Development Group tackles design-build projects from a developer’s vantage
A “single point of contact” for clients, says its CEO.
Office Buildings | Oct 26, 2021
A massive office reno project in Detroit sought to create destination spaces for returning workers
The interior design firm Pophouse relied heavily on employee input for a pilot remodel.
Cladding and Facade Systems | Oct 26, 2021
14 projects recognized by DOE for high-performance building envelope design
The inaugural class of DOE’s Better Buildings Building Envelope Campaign includes a medical office building that uses hybrid vacuum-insulated glass and a net-zero concrete-and-timber community center.
Office Buildings | Oct 21, 2021
Swinerton opens new regional headquarters in Charlotte
Redline Design Group designed the adaptive reuse project.
Office Buildings | Oct 18, 2021
Henning Larsen designs new headquarters building for KAB
The project is located in Copenhagen.
Glass and Glazing | Sep 30, 2021
Plans move forward on Central Place Sydney, duel towers with an AI-driven façade system
SOM and Fender Katsalidis are designing the project.
Office Buildings | Sep 29, 2021
Walmart’s new Home Office is the largest mass timber campus project in the U.S.
The project will occupy approximately 350 acres.
Mixed-Use | Sep 28, 2021
BIG designs new Farfetch HQ on the slopes of Leça River in Porto
The project is situated within the larger Fuse Valley site.
