In its latest report, the Census Bureau estimates that annualized starts of structures with five or more units stood at 445,000 in October, up 28.2% over the same month a year earlier. However, multifamily permits were only 5.8% higher.
Could the long-predicted slowdown in the multifamily boom finally be happening? The market researcher Axiometrics looked at its identified supply data and concludes that multifamily deliveries could peak by mid-year 2017.
Over the next three quarters, though, this market sector should continue to thrive. Axiometrics expects deliveries to growth by more than 10%, to 91,957, in the fourth quarter of 2016, and then recede a bit to 91,721 in the first quarter of 2017 (which would still be nearly 49% more than 1Q 2016), and then jump again to 102,617 deliveries in the second quarter of 2017, which would be 48.5% more than 2Q 2016.
Axiometrics estimates that a total of 343,582 new apartment units will come onto the market in 2017, 55.7% of which in the first half of the year.
Axiometrics estimates that 343,582 apartment units will come onto the market next year, more than half in the first six months. Image: Axiometrics
New York is expected to lead the nation in new apartment deliveries next year, with 27,210, representing an 88% leap over 2016 deliveries. (Three of New York’s boroughs—Brooklyn, Queens, and Midtown Manhattan—are among the top 10 submarkets for projected deliveries in 2017.)
Axiometrics points out, though, that New York’s delivery schedule “is a telling example of how construction delays have affected the apartment market.” Those delays are, in part, the result of an ongoing construction labor shortage that other data have shown is expected to continue for at least the next year.
Indeed, New York’s apartment deliveries are expected to fall precipitously in 2018, to 13,312.
Following New York in projected apartment deliveries next year are Dallas (up 36% to 23,821), Houston (which will actually be down 21.2% to 17,313), Atlanta (up 38.8% to 13,210) and Washington D.C. (up 33.7% to 13.141).
All of these metros are expected to see deliveries plummet in 2018, which Houston expected to deliver only 956 new apartment units that year.
The leading metros for multifamily deliveries are all expected to see significant falloffs by 2018. Image: Axiometrics
Axiometrics states that most of new apartments that come onto the market will be absorbed because “the U.S. economy remains in growth mode.” However, by this time next year, apartment deliveries should scale back to more historically normal quarterly levels, in the mid 60,000 units range.
Related Stories
| Mar 22, 2011
Mayor Bloomberg unveils plans for New York City’s largest new affordable housing complex since the ’70s
Plans for Hunter’s Point South, the largest new affordable housing complex to be built in New York City since the 1970s, include new residences for 5,000 families, with more than 900 in this first phase. A development team consisting of Phipps Houses, Related Companies, and Monadnock Construction has been selected to build the residential portion of the first phase of the Queens waterfront complex, which includes two mixed-use buildings comprising more than 900 housing units and roughly 20,000 square feet of new retail space.
| Mar 17, 2011
Perkins Eastman launches The Green House prototype design package
Design and architecture firm Perkins Eastman is pleased to join The Green House project and NCB Capital Impact in announcing the launch of The Green House Prototype Design Package. The Prototype will help providers develop small home senior living communities with greater efficiency and cost savings—all to the standards of care developed by The Green House project.
| Mar 11, 2011
Renovation energizes retirement community in Massachusetts
The 12-year-old Edgewood Retirement Community in Andover, Mass., underwent a major 40,000-sf expansion and renovation that added 60 patient care beds in the long-term care unit, a new 17,000-sf, 40-bed cognitive impairment unit, and an 80-seat informal dining bistro.
| Mar 11, 2011
Mixed-income retirement community in Maryland based on holistic care
The Green House Residences at Stadium Place in Waverly, Md., is a five-story, 40,600-sf, mixed-income retirement community based on a holistic continuum of care concept developed by Dr. Bill Thomas. Each of the four residential floors houses a self-contained home for 12 residents that includes 12 bedrooms/baths organized around a common living/social area called the “hearth,” which includes a kitchen, living room with fireplace, and dining area.
| Mar 11, 2011
Texas A&M mixed-use community will focus on green living
HOK, Realty Appreciation, and Texas A&M University are working on the Urban Living Laboratory, a 1.2-million-sf mixed-use project owned by the university. The five-phase, live-work-play project will include offices, retail, multifamily apartments, and two hotels.
| Mar 1, 2011
How to make rentals more attractive as the American dream evolves, adapts
Roger K. Lewis, architect and professor emeritus of architecture at the University of Maryland, writes in the Washington Post about the rising market demand for rental housing and how Building Teams can make these properties a desirable choice for consumer, not just an economically prudent and necessary one.
| Feb 15, 2011
New Orleans' rebuilt public housing architecture gets mixed reviews
The architecture of New Orleans’ new public housing is awash with optimism about how urban-design will improve residents' lives—but the changes are based on the idealism of an earlier era that’s being erased and revised.
| Feb 11, 2011
Chicago high-rise mixes condos with classrooms for Art Institute students
The Legacy at Millennium Park is a 72-story, mixed-use complex that rises high above Chicago’s Michigan Avenue. The glass tower, designed by Solomon Cordwell Buenz, is mostly residential, but also includes 41,000 sf of classroom space for the School of the Art Institute of Chicago and another 7,400 sf of retail space. The building’s 355 one-, two-, three-, and four-bedroom condominiums range from 875 sf to 9,300 sf, and there are seven levels of parking. Sky patios on the 15th, 42nd, and 60th floors give owners outdoor access and views of Lake Michigan.
| Feb 11, 2011
Sustainable community center to serve Angelinos in need
Harbor Interfaith Services, a nonprofit serving the homeless and working poor in the Harbor Area and South Bay communities of Los Angeles, engaged Withee Malcolm Architects to design a new 15,000-sf family resource center. The architects, who are working pro bono for the initial phase, created a family-centered design that consolidates all programs into a single building. The new three-story space will house a resource center, food pantry, nursery and pre-school, and administrative offices, plus indoor and outdoor play spaces and underground parking. The building’s scale and setbacks will help it blend with its residential neighbors, while its low-flow fixtures, low-VOC and recycled materials, and energy-efficient mechanical equipment and appliances will help it earn LEED certification.
| Feb 11, 2011
Apartment complex caters to University of Minnesota students
Twin Cities firm Elness Swenson Graham Architects designed the new Stadium Village Flats, in the University of Minnesota’s East Bank Campus, with students in mind. The $30 million, six-story residential/retail complex will include 120 furnished apartments with fitness rooms and lounges on each floor. More than 5,000 sf of first-floor retail space and two levels of below-ground parking will complete the complex. Opus AE Group Inc., based in Minneapolis, will provide structural engineering services.
