Multifamily housing will remain a robust market for A/E/C companies heading into 2020, according to the most recent results of PSMJ’s Quarterly Market Forecast (QMF) survey. For the third quarter of 2019, the survey found that less than 9% of the nearly 100 respondents doing multifamily work reported a decrease in proposal activity compared with the prior quarter, while more than 54% saw an increase.
The Multifamily market’s third quarter Net Plus/Minus Index (NPMI) of 46% marked the 31st consecutive quarter that the submarket exceeded an NPMI of 40%. The last time it was below that level was the third quarter of 2011.
PSMJ’s NPMI measures the difference between the percentage of firms reporting an increase in proposal activity and those reporting a decrease, quarter over quarter. PSMJ has been using the QMF as a predictor of the A/E/C industry’s health since 2003, tracking 12 major markets and 58 submarkets every three months. The company chose proposal activity to gauge the industry’s long-term outlook because it is among the earliest stages of the project lifecycle. Approximately 200 firms participate in the survey each quarter.
The Senior and Assisted Living submarket also performed well with a third-quarter NPMI of 49%. Only 4 of the 86 responding firms working in the senior care submarket reported declining proposal activity. The Senior/Assisted Living market has also been a consistently stellar performer in the QMF. Its NPMI hasn’t dipped below 50% since the fourth quarter of 2012.
“Multifamily and Senior/Assisted Living have been two of the hottest markets for proposal activity for quite some time, not only among the Housing submarkets, but throughout all 58 submarkets,” says PSMJ’s Greg Hart, a consultant who also oversees the QMF. “It is remarkable that both have seen such steady proposal growth for so long. Very few submarkets have been this consistently strong throughout the 16-year history of our survey.”
Housing (all submarkets) recorded an NPMI of 40% in the third quarter, a potentially noteworthy drop from the 59% recorded in the second quarter. After ranking the second-highest of the 12 major markets measured in the second quarter, Housing fell completely out of the top five in the third quarter. Transportation (49%) and Healthcare (46%) were tops among major markets.
Among the other Housing submarkets, Condominiums recorded a respectable NPMI of 24%, its sixth consecutive quarter in the mid-20% range. Individual single-family homes (15%) and subdivisions (8%) trailed the Housing field in the third quarter, falling markedly from 25% and 23%, respectively, in the second quarter. PSMJ Director and Senior Consultant Dave Burstein, PE, notes that the results are still positive, if potentially troubling in the longer term. He adds that lower mortgage interest rates on the horizon are likely to spur a rebound in the single-family and subdivision subsectors.
PSMJ Resources, Inc., based in Newton, Massachusetts, is a publishing, executive education, and advisory company dedicated to serving architecture, engineering and construction (A/E/C) organizations worldwide.
Related Stories
| Nov 14, 2011
303 East 33rd Street building achieves LEED-NC
The 165,000 sf 12-story residential building is the first green development to be LEED certified in the Murray Hill neighborhood of Manhattan.
| Oct 17, 2011
Austin's newest urban apartment complex under construction
Complex sits on a four-acre waterfront site along Lady Bird Lake with spectacular city and lake views, and is slated to open spring 2013.
| Oct 12, 2011
FMI’s Construction Outlook: Third Quarter 2011 Report
Construction Market Forecast: The general economy is seeing mixed signs.
| Oct 6, 2011
GREENBUILD 2011: NEXT Living EcoSuite showcased
Tridel teams up with Cisco and Control4 to unveil the future of green condo living in Canada.
| Sep 29, 2011
Kohler supports 2011 Solar Decathlon competition teams
Modular Architecture > In a quest to create the ultimate ‘green’ house, 20 collegiate teams compete in Washington D.C. Mall.
| Sep 23, 2011
$5M pledge renewed for Habitat for Humanity
The five-year commitment, which will run through 2015, includes $5 million of donated interior and exterior locks and keys for homes built with Habitat for Humanity homeowner partners and volunteers.
| Sep 23, 2011
Under 40 Leadership Summit
Building Design+Construction’s Under 40 Leadership Summit takes place October 26-28, 2011 Hotel at the Monteleone in New Orleans. Discounted hotel rate deadline: October 2, 2011.
| Sep 20, 2011
Jeanne Gang wins MacArthur Fellowship
Jeanne Gang, a 2011 MacArthur Fellowship winner described by the foundation as "an architect challenging the aesthetic and technical possibilities of the art form in a wide range of structures."
| Sep 12, 2011
Living Buildings: Are AEC Firms up to the Challenge?
Modular Architecture > You’ve done a LEED Gold or two, maybe even a LEED Platinum. But are you and your firm ready to take on the Living Building Challenge? Think twice before you say yes.
