Cap rates for real estate across most asset sectors is expected to remain stable in the second half of 2015, following a first half during which the U.S. commercial real estate market continued to perform well and attract substantial investor interest.
According to the CBRE North America Cap Rate Survey, which tracks activity in 46 major U.S. markets and 10 markets in Canada during the first six months of the year, national cap rates for industrial facilities in the U.S. experienced “very modest” cap-rate declines of 10 to 19 basis points. CBRE estimates that cap rates for stabilized Class A industrial assets was 5.65%.
Class A infill multifamily cap rates were 4.57% in the first half of the year, the second-lowest of all product types. The retail sector had the most significant national cap rate compression, followed by hotels. CBRE suggests that retail and hotels were the sectors that took the longest to recover from the past recession, “therefore, it is not surprising that the cap rate declines are greater in these sectors than those more mature in the real estate cycle.”
Central Business District Class B and C office cap rates were slightly off in the first half, but not Class A offices, “one example of investors moving out of on the risk curve,” CBRE notes. And despite sales volume gains, suburban office cap rates rose, on average, by 7 basis points.
Details from this report, as well as CBRE’s near-term predictions, include the following:
• Interest rates, a big demand driver in the commercial real estate space, are expected to rise modestly. The 10-year Treasury is projected to increase to 2.61% in the second half of 2015, and to 3.19% in 2016. However, “the near-term outlook of higher interest rates is not necessarily going to translate into higher cap rates if the rates come from stronger economic growth, as expected, as opposed to an unexpected shock to the economic system,” CBRE writes.
• CRBE doesn’t expect any cap rate movement in the second half of 2015 for office assets in the majority of markets, and only modest declines in those asset classes that do change. Jacksonville and Cincinnati are expected to experience the largest cap rate declines in Class A acquisitions.
• Transaction activity in the U.S. industrial sector during the first half of 2015 rose 70% to $37 billion. CBRE expects the full-year gain over 2014 to be 40% or greater. Cap rates in this sector are expected to fall modestly in more than one-third of the markets surveyed. Larger declines of 25 basis points or more are expected in Class B and C stabilized properties in Philadelphia and St. Louis. On the other hand, 58% of the market surveyed should experience no change to stabilized industrial cap rates.
• Retail investment in the first half of 2015 rose 12% to $45.6 billion. The “mall and other” category in this sector grew by 14%. CBRE expects investment to accelerate modestly through the remainder of the year. As far as cap rates are concerned, Class B experienced the largest average decline of 24 basis points. And four markets—San Jose, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Orange County, Calif.—all had Class A caps under 5%.
• In the first six months of 2015, sales of multifamily properties jumped 38% to 63.2 billion. One-third of that capital went to mid- and high-rise projects. For Class A infill assets, San Francisco had the lowest cap rate, at 3.75%. Of the 44 markets surveyed in this sector, 33 had cap rates of 5% or less. CRBE is predicting no cap rate change for acquisitions of stabilized infill multifamily assets in the second half of the year for more than 80% of the markets surveyed. But cap compression should occur in Nashville, Washington D.C., Baltimore, Indianapolis, and Detroit.
• Investment in U.S. hotels, at $26.9 billion, was 67% higher than in the first half of 2014. The vast majority of hotel investors are domestic, especially outside of major cities. CBRE suggests, though, that hotel pricing, as measured by cap rates, has peaked for high-end products in top-tier markets. “But it’s too early to definitively make that call,” it writes. CRBE expects cap rates for acquisitions of stabilized hotel properties to remain “broadly stable” in the second half of 2015, with 62% of markets tracked experiencing no change. Any noticeable compression is likely to occur in Tier I metros like Las Vegas and Orlando, and Tier III markets such as Tampa, Jacksonville, Austin, and Pittsburgh.
Related Stories
High-rise Construction | Sep 3, 2015
Rafael Viñoly's 'Walkie-Talkie' tower named U.K.'s worst new building
The curved, glass tower at 20 Fenchurch Street in London has been known to reflect intense heat onto the streets below (in one instance damaging a car) and cause severe wind gusts.
Retail Centers | Aug 27, 2015
Vallco Shopping Mall renovation plans include 'largest green roof in the world'
The new owners of the mall in Cupertino, Calif., intend to transform the outdated shopping mall into a multi-purpose complex, topped by a 30-acre park.
Mixed-Use | Aug 26, 2015
Innovation districts + tech clusters: How the ‘open innovation’ era is revitalizing urban cores
In the race for highly coveted tech companies and startups, cities, institutions, and developers are teaming to form innovation hot pockets.
Office Buildings | Aug 25, 2015
JLL report: Tenant improvement key to attracting Millennials
Millennials have been the driving force behind the growth in renovation construction projects since 2013, according to JLL.
Office Buildings | Aug 24, 2015
British company OpenDesk offers open-sourced office furniture
Offices can “download” their furniture to be made locally, anywhere.
Office Buildings | Aug 19, 2015
Good design can combat open-office issues
Three tricks to maintain privacy and worker production in a cube-less world, according to GS&P's Jack E. Weber
High-rise Construction | Aug 12, 2015
Construction begins for Kengo Kuma-designed twisted Rolex tower in Dallas
Japanese architect Kengo Kuma designs tower with gradually rotating floor plates for Rolex's new office in Dallas.
Giants 400 | Aug 7, 2015
GOVERNMENT SECTOR GIANTS: Public sector spending even more cautiously on buildings
AEC firms that do government work say their public-sector clients have been going smaller to save money on construction projects, according to BD+C's 2015 Giants 300 report.
Giants 400 | Aug 6, 2015
GREEN BUILDING GIANTS: Green building movement hits a new plateau, but the underlying problems remain
Today, the green building movement is all about eliminating toxic substances in building materials and systems and, for manufacturers, issuing environmental and health product declarations. Whether these efforts will lead to healthier products and building environments remains an open question.
Codes and Standards | Aug 6, 2015
Difference in male-female thermal comfort is due to clothing, ASHRAE says
Women wear lighter clothing in the summer, so they tend to be cooler in air-conditioned rooms, according to the group.