Inflation may be starting to show some signs of cooling, but the Fed isn’t backing down anytime soon and the impact is becoming more noticeable in the architecture, engineering, and construction (A/E/C) space. The overall A/E/C outlook continues a downward trend and this is driven largely by the freefall happening in key private-sector markets.
PSMJ’s latest Quarterly Market Forecast survey of 115 A/E/C executives (collected between December 28, 2022 and January 10, 2023) revealed an overall proposal activity Net Plus/Minus Index (NPMI) value of just 8.0. Any NPMI value above zero indicates that more respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity compared to the prior quarter (+100 indicates all respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity, -100 indicates all respondents are seeing a decrease in proposal activity). Since proposal activity is a leading indicator for backlog, revenue, and — ultimately — cash flow, the latest NPMI values provide a valuable glimpse into cash flow over the next 12 to 24 months.
While still barely clinging on to positive territory, this latest index value marks a continued decline from the record-setting 2022 Q1 value of 60.2 and a significant slide from the previous quarter value of 25.0. According to PSMJ President Gregory Hart, A/E/C firms’ marketing horsepower will be tested in the months ahead. “Huge streams of funding to support infrastructure projects are keeping the public-sector markets in pretty good shape,” states Hart. “But, if you have significant exposure to the private land development markets in your revenue mix, now is the time to act to avoid significant trouble ahead.”
Any index value greater than 20 generally indicates a healthy market. Three of the 12 client markets are now below that threshold and the two commercial markets have entered negative territory.
The Top 5 Markets for the 4th Quarter of 2022 are:
- Transportation: 62.9
- Heavy Industry: 57.9
- Water/Wastewater: 57.1
- Energy/Utilities: 55.2
- Environmental: 46.2
The following chart compares the NPMI values in each client to the same period last year:
Related Stories
Architects | Dec 7, 2018
2019 AIA Gold Medal awarded to Lord Richard Rogers, Hon. FAIA
The Gold Medal honors an individual whose significant body of work has had a lasting influence on the theory and practice of architecture.
3D Printing | Dec 7, 2018
Additive manufacturing heads to the jobsite
Prototype mobile 3D printing shop aims to identify additive manufacturing applications for construction jobsites.
Architects | Dec 6, 2018
Payette honored with 2019 AIA Architecture Firm Award
The award recognizes a firm that has consistently produced distinguished architecture for at least 10 years.
Biophilic Design | Nov 19, 2018
Biophilic design: What is it? Why it matters? And how do we use it?
As we continue to move toward the city and spend more time indoors, our day-to-day interaction with quality nature is shrinking. One contemporary concept to reverse this effect is biophilic design, a strategic approach to tap into—and harness—nature in the built environment.
Architects | Nov 6, 2018
Kohn Pedersen Fox opens three new offices
Following exciting current work, new commissions, and upcoming opportunities, global architecture firm embraces the future with new outposts.
Architects | Oct 2, 2018
Gensler, in latest report, highlights where resilient design could make the greatest impact on the built environment
The firm showcases its own recent projects as demonstrations for what can work in six areas.
Architects | Sep 24, 2018
Assembly (and rigorous planning) required: Managing the pros and cons of modular construction
While offering efficiency and flexibility, modular construction requires extensive planning and collaboration to avoid potential challenges.
Architects | Sep 19, 2018
Back it up: Parking lot trends
There are two shifts that we are seeing in parking lot planning and design – and these shifts are rooted in parking’s place at the intersection of environment, transportation, and market behavior.
Architects | Sep 14, 2018
We’ve entered the golden age of brain science. What does it mean for AEC firms?
New research from the SMPS Foundation explores the known principles and most recent research surrounding the human brain and behavioral science. The goal: to discover connections between the science and the AEC business.
Architects | Sep 6, 2018
S/L/A/M Collaborative completes merger with L.A.-based firm
The healthcare sector is one of Frank Webb Architects’ strengths.
