Inflation may be starting to show some signs of cooling, but the Fed isn’t backing down anytime soon and the impact is becoming more noticeable in the architecture, engineering, and construction (A/E/C) space. The overall A/E/C outlook continues a downward trend and this is driven largely by the freefall happening in key private-sector markets.
PSMJ’s latest Quarterly Market Forecast survey of 115 A/E/C executives (collected between December 28, 2022 and January 10, 2023) revealed an overall proposal activity Net Plus/Minus Index (NPMI) value of just 8.0. Any NPMI value above zero indicates that more respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity compared to the prior quarter (+100 indicates all respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity, -100 indicates all respondents are seeing a decrease in proposal activity). Since proposal activity is a leading indicator for backlog, revenue, and — ultimately — cash flow, the latest NPMI values provide a valuable glimpse into cash flow over the next 12 to 24 months.
While still barely clinging on to positive territory, this latest index value marks a continued decline from the record-setting 2022 Q1 value of 60.2 and a significant slide from the previous quarter value of 25.0. According to PSMJ President Gregory Hart, A/E/C firms’ marketing horsepower will be tested in the months ahead. “Huge streams of funding to support infrastructure projects are keeping the public-sector markets in pretty good shape,” states Hart. “But, if you have significant exposure to the private land development markets in your revenue mix, now is the time to act to avoid significant trouble ahead.”
Any index value greater than 20 generally indicates a healthy market. Three of the 12 client markets are now below that threshold and the two commercial markets have entered negative territory.
The Top 5 Markets for the 4th Quarter of 2022 are:
- Transportation: 62.9
- Heavy Industry: 57.9
- Water/Wastewater: 57.1
- Energy/Utilities: 55.2
- Environmental: 46.2
The following chart compares the NPMI values in each client to the same period last year:
Related Stories
| Jun 11, 2018
Accelerate Live! talk: Design innovation at Adrian Smith + Gordon Gill Architecture
In this 15-minute talk at BD+C’s Accelerate Live! conference (May 10, 2018, Chicago), AS+GG’s Anthony Viola takes us behind the magic curtain to illuminate the firm’s methods for nurturing design innovation.
| Jun 11, 2018
Accelerate Live! talk: ‘AEC can has Blockchains?’
In this 15-minute talk at BD+C’s Accelerate Live! conference (May 10, 2018, Chicago), HOK’s Greg Schleusner explores how the AEC industry could adapt the best ideas from other industries (banking, manufacturing, tech) to modernize inefficient design and construction processes.
| Jun 11, 2018
Accelerate Live! talk: How advanced digital fabrication techniques are driving design innovation
In this 15-minute talk at BD+C’s Accelerate Live! conference (May 10, 2018, Chicago), SOM’s Lucas Tryggestad and Kyle Vansice present the firm’s 3D-printed building project and explore how digital fabrication is pushing design innovation.
| Jun 11, 2018
Accelerate Live! talk: AEC + Data + AI — Poison for some, elixir for others
In this 15-minute talk at BD+C’s Accelerate Live! conference (May 10, 2018, Chicago), predictive analytics expert David Morgareidge offers steps that AE firms can take today if they want to survive AECO digital transformation.
Education Facilities | Jun 8, 2018
Data is driving design for education
In gathering this constant flow of data and recognizing the shifting trends, how can educational institutions make informed choices and smart design decisions that lead to higher efficiency and improved control over capital budgets?
Architects | Jun 6, 2018
Chief of Staff of the Army honors SmithGroupJJR’s Philip Tobey with Outstanding Civilian Service Award
Tobey began his career as a captain and military architect at Headquarters, U.S. Air Force Office of the Surgeon General, with review responsibility for medical projects worldwide.
Architects | Jun 6, 2018
A modest boost in licensed architects in 2017
NCARB’s annual survey shows California and New York leading the pack.
Healthcare Facilities | Jun 6, 2018
French 'Alzheimer’s Village' designed to resemble a medieval bastide
The new facility will provide research on a new way of treating Alzheimer’s patients.
Architects | Jun 5, 2018
Michael Green Architecture joins Katerra
Michael green architecture is a globally recognized leader in mass timber architecture.
Architects | Jun 4, 2018
Changing the way we think about water and design
We have several gaps between the need and desire to have abundant, accessible, clean water and the reality of dealing with on-going and increasing water shortage crises.
