Inflation may be starting to show some signs of cooling, but the Fed isn’t backing down anytime soon and the impact is becoming more noticeable in the architecture, engineering, and construction (A/E/C) space. The overall A/E/C outlook continues a downward trend and this is driven largely by the freefall happening in key private-sector markets.
PSMJ’s latest Quarterly Market Forecast survey of 115 A/E/C executives (collected between December 28, 2022 and January 10, 2023) revealed an overall proposal activity Net Plus/Minus Index (NPMI) value of just 8.0. Any NPMI value above zero indicates that more respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity compared to the prior quarter (+100 indicates all respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity, -100 indicates all respondents are seeing a decrease in proposal activity). Since proposal activity is a leading indicator for backlog, revenue, and — ultimately — cash flow, the latest NPMI values provide a valuable glimpse into cash flow over the next 12 to 24 months.
While still barely clinging on to positive territory, this latest index value marks a continued decline from the record-setting 2022 Q1 value of 60.2 and a significant slide from the previous quarter value of 25.0. According to PSMJ President Gregory Hart, A/E/C firms’ marketing horsepower will be tested in the months ahead. “Huge streams of funding to support infrastructure projects are keeping the public-sector markets in pretty good shape,” states Hart. “But, if you have significant exposure to the private land development markets in your revenue mix, now is the time to act to avoid significant trouble ahead.”
Any index value greater than 20 generally indicates a healthy market. Three of the 12 client markets are now below that threshold and the two commercial markets have entered negative territory.
The Top 5 Markets for the 4th Quarter of 2022 are:
- Transportation: 62.9
- Heavy Industry: 57.9
- Water/Wastewater: 57.1
- Energy/Utilities: 55.2
- Environmental: 46.2
The following chart compares the NPMI values in each client to the same period last year:
Related Stories
Multifamily Housing | Apr 26, 2017
Multifamily amenity trends: The latest in package delivery centers
Package delivery centers provide order and security for the mountains of parcels piling up at apartment and condominium communities.
Multifamily Housing | Apr 26, 2017
Huh? A subway car on the roof?
Chicago’s newest multifamily development features an iconic CTA car on its amenity deck.
High-rise Construction | Apr 26, 2017
Dubai’s newest building is a giant gilded picture frame
Despite currently being under construction, the building is the center of an ongoing lawsuit filed by the architect.
Architects | Apr 25, 2017
Two Mid-Atlantic design firms join forces
Quinn Evans Architects and Cho Benn Holback + Associates have similar portfolios with an emphasis on civic work.
BIM and Information Technology | Apr 24, 2017
Reconciling design energy models with real world results
Clark Nexsen’s Brian Turner explores the benefits and challenges of energy modeling and discusses how design firms can implement standards for the highest possible accuracy.
Higher Education | Apr 24, 2017
Small colleges face challenges — and opportunities
Moody’s Investor Service forecasts that closure rates for small institutions will triple in the coming years, and mergers will double.
Healthcare Facilities | Apr 24, 2017
Treating the whole person: Designing modern mental health facilities
Mental health issues no longer carry the stigma that they once did. Awareness campaigns and new research have helped bring our understanding of the brain—and how to design for its heath—into the 21st century.
Architects | Apr 20, 2017
Design as a business strategy: Tapping data is easier than you think
We have been preaching “good design matters” for a long time, demonstrating the connection between the physical environment and employee satisfaction, individual and team performance, and an evolving organizational culture.
Architects | Apr 20, 2017
‘Gateways to Chinatown’ project seeks the creation of a new neighborhood landmark for NYC’s Chinatown
The winning team will have $900,000 to design and implement their proposal.
Architects | Apr 19, 2017
Tour Zaha Hadid, Frank Gehry architecture with Google Earth
Google Earth’s new ‘Voyager’ feature allows people to take interactive guided tours.
