U.S. construction starts had three consecutive quarters of positive growth in 2017

ConstructConnect, a provider of construction information and technology solutions in North America, recently announced the release of its Q4 2017 Forecast Quarterly Report. The Winter 2017-18 starts forecast includes year-over-year estimates for 2017 that have become more upbeat than a quarter ago. Groundbreakings on several mega projects late this year have provided exceptional lift to the industrial and engineering type-of-structure categories.

“Out to 2021, residential will be the main driver of total construction starts, recording year-over-year increases of nearly +6.0% or more,” explained Chief Economist Alex Carrick. “Non-residential building will disappoint, with gains of only about +2.0% each year. Engineering will be strong in 2018 and 2019, as energy initiatives and infrastructure work are promoted by Washington, but will then moderate in 2020-21.”

The forecast which combines ConstructConnect's proprietary data with macroeconomic factors and Oxford Economics econometric expertise, shows some of the more robust 2018 starts forecasts:

Single-family residential, +8.8%
Warehouses, +4.7%
Nursing homes, +5.9%
Educational facilities, +4.2%
Roads, +5.9%
Bridges, +10.2%
Miscellaneous civil (power, oil and gas), +13.8%

2017 total starts are now expected to be +7.9% (versus an earlier calculated +4.5%). Residential has been upgraded to +10.1% and engineering/civil to +23.1%. Non-residential building has been left essentially flat at -0.5%.

For 2018, the new forecasts shave a bit off what was previously expected. Total starts are now projected to be +4.8%, a little slower than the +5.9% of a quarter ago. Residential will be +6.7% in 2018; non-res building, +1.9%; and heavy engineering/civil, +6.6%.

In residential construction, the multi-family market has had its turn and it will be the single-family market that will expand more rapidly moving forward, aided by family-formations among the millennial generation.

The forecast reports that educational facilities will grow faster than hospitals in 2018, but beginning in 2019 their positions will reverse. Some other non-residential building type-of-structure categories with bullish outlooks include: courthouses and prisons; warehouses; and nursing homes. Airports and sports stadiums will also be stepping into the construction spotlight.

The report noted a few ongoing economic trends:

A synchronous world expansion is underway, with North America, Japan, China and Europe all experiencing GDP growth
Based on demographics, housing starts have fallen short of potential for almost a decade
Office space demand will increasingly come from firms engaged in high-tech
Prices for many internationally traded commodities are on the mend

To learn more about ConstructConnect or get a free copy of the Forecast Quarterly Report, visit constructconnect.com.

Multifamily rents continued to increase through the first half of 2023, despite challenges for the sector and continuing economic uncertainty. But job growth has remained robust and new households keep forming, creating apartment demand and ongoing rent growth. The average U.S. apartment rent reached an all-time high of $1,716 in May.

Industry Research | Jun 15, 2023

Exurbs and emerging suburbs having fastest population growth, says Cushman & Wakefield

Recently released county and metro-level population growth data by the U.S. Census Bureau shows that the fastest growing areas are found in exurbs and emerging suburbs.

Contractors | Jun 13, 2023

The average U.S. contractor has 8.9 months worth of construction work in the pipeline, as of May 2023

Associated Builders and Contractors reported that its Construction Backlog Indicator remained unchanged at 8.9 months in May, according to an ABC member survey conducted May 20 to June 7. The reading is 0.1 months lower than in May 2022. Backlog in the infrastructure category ticked up again and has now returned to May 2022 levels. On a regional basis, backlog increased in every region but the Northeast.

Supply-chain snags are among the factors delaying construction.

Industry Research | Jun 13, 2023

Two new surveys track how the construction industry, in the U.S. and globally, is navigating market disruption and volatility

The surveys, conducted by XYZ Reality and KPMG International, found greater willingness to embrace technology, workplace diversity, and ESG precepts.

Skanska USA's mental health trainees are identified by a Green Sticker

| Jun 5, 2023

Communication is the key to AEC firms’ mental health programs and training

The core of recent awareness efforts—and their greatest challenge—is getting workers to come forward and share stories.

Contractors | May 24, 2023

The average U.S. contractor has 8.9 months worth of construction work in the pipeline, as of April 2023

Contractor backlogs climbed slightly in April, from a seven-month low the previous month, according to Associated Builders and Contractors.

Multifamily Housing | May 23, 2023

One out of three office buildings in largest U.S. cities are suitable for residential conversion

Roughly one in three office buildings in the largest U.S. cities are well suited to be converted to multifamily residential properties, according to a study by global real estate firm Avison Young. Some 6,206 buildings across 10 U.S. cities present viable opportunities for conversion to residential use.