Cap rates for real estate across most asset sectors is expected to remain stable in the second half of 2015, following a first half during which the U.S. commercial real estate market continued to perform well and attract substantial investor interest.
According to the CBRE North America Cap Rate Survey, which tracks activity in 46 major U.S. markets and 10 markets in Canada during the first six months of the year, national cap rates for industrial facilities in the U.S. experienced “very modest” cap-rate declines of 10 to 19 basis points. CBRE estimates that cap rates for stabilized Class A industrial assets was 5.65%.
Class A infill multifamily cap rates were 4.57% in the first half of the year, the second-lowest of all product types. The retail sector had the most significant national cap rate compression, followed by hotels. CBRE suggests that retail and hotels were the sectors that took the longest to recover from the past recession, “therefore, it is not surprising that the cap rate declines are greater in these sectors than those more mature in the real estate cycle.”
Central Business District Class B and C office cap rates were slightly off in the first half, but not Class A offices, “one example of investors moving out of on the risk curve,” CBRE notes. And despite sales volume gains, suburban office cap rates rose, on average, by 7 basis points.
Details from this report, as well as CBRE’s near-term predictions, include the following:
• Interest rates, a big demand driver in the commercial real estate space, are expected to rise modestly. The 10-year Treasury is projected to increase to 2.61% in the second half of 2015, and to 3.19% in 2016. However, “the near-term outlook of higher interest rates is not necessarily going to translate into higher cap rates if the rates come from stronger economic growth, as expected, as opposed to an unexpected shock to the economic system,” CBRE writes.
• CRBE doesn’t expect any cap rate movement in the second half of 2015 for office assets in the majority of markets, and only modest declines in those asset classes that do change. Jacksonville and Cincinnati are expected to experience the largest cap rate declines in Class A acquisitions.
• Transaction activity in the U.S. industrial sector during the first half of 2015 rose 70% to $37 billion. CBRE expects the full-year gain over 2014 to be 40% or greater. Cap rates in this sector are expected to fall modestly in more than one-third of the markets surveyed. Larger declines of 25 basis points or more are expected in Class B and C stabilized properties in Philadelphia and St. Louis. On the other hand, 58% of the market surveyed should experience no change to stabilized industrial cap rates.
• Retail investment in the first half of 2015 rose 12% to $45.6 billion. The “mall and other” category in this sector grew by 14%. CBRE expects investment to accelerate modestly through the remainder of the year. As far as cap rates are concerned, Class B experienced the largest average decline of 24 basis points. And four markets—San Jose, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Orange County, Calif.—all had Class A caps under 5%.
• In the first six months of 2015, sales of multifamily properties jumped 38% to 63.2 billion. One-third of that capital went to mid- and high-rise projects. For Class A infill assets, San Francisco had the lowest cap rate, at 3.75%. Of the 44 markets surveyed in this sector, 33 had cap rates of 5% or less. CRBE is predicting no cap rate change for acquisitions of stabilized infill multifamily assets in the second half of the year for more than 80% of the markets surveyed. But cap compression should occur in Nashville, Washington D.C., Baltimore, Indianapolis, and Detroit.
• Investment in U.S. hotels, at $26.9 billion, was 67% higher than in the first half of 2014. The vast majority of hotel investors are domestic, especially outside of major cities. CBRE suggests, though, that hotel pricing, as measured by cap rates, has peaked for high-end products in top-tier markets. “But it’s too early to definitively make that call,” it writes. CRBE expects cap rates for acquisitions of stabilized hotel properties to remain “broadly stable” in the second half of 2015, with 62% of markets tracked experiencing no change. Any noticeable compression is likely to occur in Tier I metros like Las Vegas and Orlando, and Tier III markets such as Tampa, Jacksonville, Austin, and Pittsburgh.
Related Stories
| Aug 18, 2014
SPARK’s newly unveiled mixed-use development references China's flowing hillscape
Architecture firm SPARK recently finished a design for a new development in Shenzhen. The 770,700 square-foot mixed-use structure's design mimics the hilly landscape of the site's locale.
| Aug 14, 2014
How workplace design can empower employees, businesses
Focusing on recent work at Follett and Zurich, CannonDesign’ Meg Osman reveals the power of research, strategy, change management, and measurement to transform businesses for the better.
| Aug 12, 2014
Shading prototype could allow new levels of environmental control for skyscraper occupants
Developed by architects at NBBJ, Sunbreak uses a unique three-hinged shade that morphs from an opaque shutter to an abstract set of vertical blinds to an awning, depending on what is needed.
| Aug 11, 2014
The Endless City: Skyscraper concept connects all floors with dual ramps
Rather than superimposing one floor on top of another, London-based SURE Architecture proposes two endless ramps, rising gradually with a low gradient from the ground floor to the sky.
| Aug 8, 2014
First look: China's latest office development will take the shape of binary code
The Window of Guangzhou project will consist of three towers forming the number sequence "001."
| Aug 8, 2014
Government Sector Giants: Public-sector construction slow, but stirring [2014 Giants 300 Report]
Improving energy performance of existing properties through targeted upgrades and large-scale reconstruction continues to be a federal priority, according to BD+C's 2014 Giants 300 Report.
| Aug 7, 2014
Office Sector Giants: ‘Flex’ reigns supreme in hot office construction market [2014 BD+C Giants 300 Report]
The adage “doing more with less” has become a byword for many businesses since the Great Recession, and clients are trying to maximize every precious inch, according to BD+C's 2014 Giants 300 Report.
| Aug 6, 2014
25 projects win awards for design-build excellence
The 2014 Design-Build Project/Team Awards showcase design-build best practices and celebrate the achievements of owners and design-build teams in nine categories across the spectrum of horizontal and vertical construction.
| Jul 30, 2014
Wolf Point high-rise development begins construction in Chicago
Designed by Pelli Clarke Pelli Architects, the 48-story luxury residential tower is part of a three-tower mixed-use development along the Chicago River.
| Jul 28, 2014
Reconstruction market benefits from improving economy, new technology [2014 Giants 300 Report]
Following years of fairly lackluster demand for commercial property remodeling, reconstruction revenue is improving, according to the 2014 Giants 300 report.
