The Architecture Billings Index (ABI), produced by the AIA Economics & Market Research Group, is a leading economic indicator that provides an approximately nine- to twelve-month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity. The diffusion indexes contained in the full report are derived from a monthly “work-on-the-boards” survey that is sent to a panel of AIA member-owned firms.
Participants are asked whether their billings increased, decreased, or stayed the same in the month that just ended as compared to the prior month, and the results are then compiled into the ABI. These monthly results are also seasonally adjusted to allow for comparison to prior months. The monthly ABI index scores are centered around 50, with scores above 50 indicating an aggregate increase in billings, and scores below 50 indicating a decline.
Following a generally positive performance in 2015, the Architecture Billings Index has begun this year modestly dipping back into negative terrain. The AIA reported the January ABI score was 49.6, down slightly from the mark of 51.3 in the previous month. This score reflects a minor decrease in design services (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). The new projects inquiry index was 55.3, down from a reading of 60.5 the previous month.
“The fundamentals are mostly sound in the nonresidential design and construction market,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “January was a rocky month throughout the economy, with falling oil prices, international economic concerns, and with steep declines in stock market valuations in the U.S. and elsewhere. Some of the fallout of this uncertainty may have affected progress on design projects.”
Key January* ABI highlights:
- Regional averages: West (50.8), Northeast (50.4), South (50.3), Midwest (48.9),
- Sector index breakdown: multifamily residential (51.9), commercial / industrial (50.5), institutional (49.9), mixed practice (49.0)
- Project inquiries index: 55.3
- Design contracts index: 50.9
The regional and sector categories are calculated as a 3-month moving average, whereas the national index, design contracts and inquiries are monthly numbers.
* Every January the AIA research department updates the seasonal factors used to calculate the ABI, resulting in a revision of recent ABI values.
Related Stories
Market Data | Jan 31, 2017
AIA foresees nonres building spending increasing, but at a slower pace than in 2016
Expects another double-digit growth year for office construction, but a more modest uptick for health-related building.
High-rise Construction | Jan 23, 2017
Growth spurt: A record-breaking 128 buildings of 200 meters or taller were completed in 2016
This marks the third consecutive record-breaking year for building completions over 200 meters.
Market Data | Jan 18, 2017
Fraud and risk incidents on the rise for construction, engineering, and infrastructure businesses
Seven of the 10 executives in the sector surveyed in the report said their company fell victim to fraud in the past year.
Market Data | Jan 18, 2017
Architecture Billings Index ends year on positive note
Architecture firms close 2016 with the strongest performance of the year.
Market Data | Jan 12, 2017
73% of construction firms plan to expand their payrolls in 2017
However, many firms remain worried about the availability of qualified workers.
Market Data | Jan 9, 2017
Trump market impact prompts surge in optimism for U.S. engineering firm leaders
The boost in firm leader optimism extends across almost the entire engineering marketplace.
Market Data | Jan 5, 2017
Nonresidential spending thrives in strong November spending report
Many construction firms have reported that they remain busy but have become concerned that work could dry up in certain markets in 2017 or 2018, says Anirban Basu, ABC Chief Economist.
Market Data | Dec 21, 2016
Architecture Billings Index up slightly in November
New design contracts also return to positive levels, signifying future growth in construction activity.
Market Data | Dec 21, 2016
Will housing adjust to an aging population?
New Joint Center report projects 66% increase in senior heads of households by 2035.
Market Data | Dec 13, 2016
ABC predicts modest growth for 2017 nonresidential construction sector; warns of vulnerability for contractor
“The U.S. economy continues to expand amid a weak global economy and, despite risks to the construction industry, nonresidential spending should expand 3.5 percent in 2017,” says ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu.
